Author: STEVEN L. BYERS, PH.D.
INTRODUCTION
Oregon has a problem with crime, homelessness, and drugs, ranking the state forty-six worst in the nation for public safety. Despite increasing spending on public safety per capita by 48.1% from 2011 to 2021, the third largest increase nationwide, they rank
2nd lowest in police per capita. Though the crime rate has decreased 12.2% from 2011, Oregonians are voting with their feet by leaving the state. In 2011, net in migration was 17,931, but in 2022 net in migration was -29,730, a 264% decrease.
Legislators and public officials have begun to reluctantly reverse ill conceived relaxation of many criminal penalties, beginning with the February 2024 recriminalization of possession and use of drugs.
It is a step in the right direction, but resources need to be shifted back to basic policing and crime prevention and district attorney’s need to enforce penalties when the law is broken. Failure to do so will likely result in further decreases in net in migration.
Public safety is crucial to a state’s ability to attract newcomers, keep existing residents, bring in new businesses, and expand those already located in the state. This has reduced the attractiveness of the state, as shown by declining migration, and will have economic consequences corrective actions are not pursued.
Though the crime rate has decreased 12.2% from 2011, Oregonians are voting with their feet by leaving the state.
KEY FINDINGS
- Oregon’s Public Safety Competitiveness Index declined from 69 in 2011 to 67 in 2023.
- Public spending per capita increased 48.1% from $769.71 in 2011 to $1140.21 in 2023.
- The Crime rate declined 12.2% from 3362.2 to 2950.9 in 2023. Despite this Oregon’s Crime Rate Competitiveness Index declined from 69 to 61 as other states saw larger declines in the crime rate.
- Drug overdose deaths per capita increased 155.3 percent from 2011 to 2023, and as a result the Drug Overdose Per Capita Competitiveness Index declined from 87 to 74 as other states either saw declines in drug overdose deaths per capita or experienced lower increases than Oregon.
- Despite public spending on public safety increasing 48.1% from 2011 to 2023, the number of police per capita (1,000 residents) declined from 1.6 to 1.5 and the Police Per Capita (1,000 residents) Competitiveness Index went from 50 to 51, dead last.
- The number of incidents of murder/negligent homicide increased 46.2% from 2022 to 2023.
- The number of incidents of vagrancy increased 105.4% from 2020 to 2013.
CSI issues a Free Enterprise Report annually. The report assesses the state’s competitiveness relative to forty-nine other states and the District of Columbia and provides data and analysis on eight policy areas: education, energy, healthcare, housing, infrastructure, public safety, state budget, and taxes and fees. This report is intended to provide additional details on the state budget competitiveness not covered in the Free Enterprise Report.
The competitiveness indices should be interpreted as follows: an increase (decrease) in an index indicates increased (decreased) competitiveness relative to the other forty-nine states and District of Columbia. Oregon’s individual performance may improve, for example, its crime rate may decrease, however, other states may have seen greater decreases, and this will cause Oregon’s competitiveness in the crime rate to decline.
STATE PUBLIC SAFETY COMPETITIVENESS INDEX
To gauge how well states are performing regarding housing CSI produces a State Public Safety Competitiveness Index for all fifty states and the District of Columbia consisting of five metrics that capture distinct aspects of public safety, these include the public safety spending per capita, drug overdose deaths, police per capita, the crime rate, and homelessness. Each metric is ranked relative to all fifty states and the District of Columbia. Then the four ranked metrics are equally weighted and summed. This value is ranked again to produce an aggregate measure of housing competitiveness as shown in Figure 1. Oregon’s Public Competitiveness Index was 69 in 2011 and then decreased to 67 in 2023. An increase (decrease) in the Public Safety Competitiveness Index is a positive (negative) qualitative change – i.e., the state is more competitive as the index approaches one hundred and less competitive as the index declines.
FIGURE 1 – OREGON PUBLIC SAFETY COMPETITIVENESS INDEX
Figure 2 shows the evolution of the five components included in the Public Safety Competitiveness Index.
The decline in the Public Safety Competitiveness Index was the result of declines in two of the component competitiveness indices and moderate increases in the other three. The Competitiveness Index for Police per Capita increased from 50 in 2011 to 51 in 2023. The Competitiveness Index for the Crime Rate decreased from 69 in 2011 to 61 in 2023. Meanwhile, the Competitiveness Index for Public Safety Spending per Capita increased from 88 in 2011 to 96 in 2023. The Competitiveness Index for Drug Overdose Deaths increased from 87 in 2011 to 74 in 2023. The Competitiveness Index for Homelessness increased from 51 in 2011 to 52 in 2023.
The underlying cause of Oregon’s decrease in public safety competitiveness
was primarily the result of decreases in the Crime Rate Competitiveness Index and the Drug Overdose Deaths Per Capita Competitiveness Index relative to other states.
FIGURE 2 – OREGON PUBLIC SAFETY COMPETITIVENESS INDEX COMPONENTS
PUBLIC SAFETY SPENDING PER CAPITA COMPETITIVENESS INDEX AND METRIC
To determine if Oregon’s change in competitiveness for public safety spending per capita was the result of a change in its own performance, the metric underlying the competitiveness index is shown in together with the competitiveness index, see Figure 3.
The index increased from 88 in 2011 to 96 in 2023. This increase was the result of a 48% increase in the underlying metric and other states having smaller increases in the underlying metric relative to Oregon, meaning Oregon has increased spending on public safety more than other states.
In 2011, Oregon public safety spending per capita was $769.71. This increased to $1140.21 in 2023, a 48.1% increase.
FIGURE 3 –OREGON PUBLIC SAFETY SPENDING PER CAPITA COMPETITIVENESS INDEX AND METRIC
DRUG OVERDOSE DEATHS PER CAPITA – COMPETITIVENESS INDEX AND METRIC
To determine if Oregon’s change in competitiveness in the drug overdose deaths per capita was the result of a change in its own performance or the metric underlying the competitiveness index, Figure 4 shows the index and the underlying metric.
Both the index and the underlying metric rose from 2011 to 2023. The index decreased from 87 in 2011 to 74 in 2023.
The underlying metric increased from 0.000123 in 2011 to 0.000314 in 2023, a 155.3% increase and this is what drove the competitiveness index down as the underlying metric increased much more than in other states.
FIGURE 4 – DRUG OVERDOSE DEATHS PER CAPITA – COMPETITIVENESS INDEX AND METRIC
POLICE PER CAPITA (1,000 RESIDENTS) COMPETITIVENESS INDEX AND METRIC
To determine if Oregon’s change in competitiveness in the police per capita (1,000 residents) was the result of a change in its own performance or larger or smaller changes in the metric in other states, the metric underlying the competitiveness index is shown in conjunction with the competitiveness index, see Figure 5.
The primary driver of the decline in the competitiveness index was the result of an increase in the underlying metric, meaning there are more police per capita now.
In 2011, the metric was 1.7 police officers per 1,000 residents. That increased to 1.8 in 2023. As a result, the competitiveness index increased from 54 in 2011 to 59 in 2023.
FIGURE 5 – POLICE PER CAPITA (1,000 RESIDENTS) COMPETITIVENESS INDEX AND METRIC – OREGON
CRIME RATE COMPETITIVENESS INDEX AND METRIC
To determine if Oregon’s change in competitiveness in the Crime rate was the result of a change in its own performance, the metric underlying the competitiveness index is shown in conjunction with the competitiveness index, see Figure 6.
Data from 2011 through 2020 was based on the FBI’s previous data classification. CSI assumes the crime rates for the years 2021,
2022, 2023 are the same as 2020. The FBI is now using the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) so the next iteration of the Crime Rate Competitiveness Index will utilize NIBRS.
The primary driver of the decline in the competitiveness index was the result of a large decrease in the underlying metric. In 2011, the metric was 3362.2 but had declined 12.2% to 2950.9 in 2023. Despite the decrease in the crime rate, the crime rate competitiveness index declined from 69 in 2011 to 61 in 2023 as other states experienced lower crime rates over time.
FIGURE 6 – CRIME RATE COMPETITIVENESS INDEX AND METRIC – OREGON
CRIME RATES IN OREGON 2011 TO 2023
Data shown in Figures 8 and 9, comes from the Oregon Bureau of Investigation Crime Statistics. These data differ from the data used to calculate the competitiveness index and as such, the two data sets are not comparable.
Shown in Figure 8, the crime rate for all offenses declined 9.3% from 2020 to 2023, with the largest decrease coming from crimes against society (-13.8%), followed by crimes against property
(-3.9%). The only major category of crime that increased was crimes against person, rising 0.3%.
FIGURE 8 – AVERAGE MONTHLY CRIME RATE FOR MAJOR CRIME CATEGORIES & VIOLENT CRIMES
| Average Monthly Crime Incidents (Based on NIBRS) | |||||
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | % Change 2020-2023 | |
| Other | 4701 | 3946 | 3676 | 3450 | -26.6% |
| Person | 3510 | 3550 | 3604 | 3520 | 0.3% |
| Property | 15080 | 15183 | 16288 | 14498 | -3.9% |
| Society | 7736 | 6690 | 6624 | 6669 | -13.8% |
| All Offenses | 31027 | 29370 | 30191 | 28137 | -9.3% |
Figure 9 shows the number of crime incidents by specific crime for 2020-2023. Decreases in incidents are shown in red and increases are shown in green. Out of sixty-three categories, 25 saw increases in the number of incidents and 38 saw declines. The largest increases occurred in prostitution (940%), vagrancy violations (105.4%), shoplifting (48.2%, extortion/blackmail (54.6%), and murder and negligent manslaughter (46.2%).
FIGURE 9 – NUMBER OF CRIME INCIDENTS BY SPECIFIC CRIME (NIBRS)
| Number of Crime Incident by Specific Crime (NIBRS) | ||||||
| Oregon Specific Crime (ONIBRS) | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2022 | 2023 | % Change 2020-2023 |
| Aggravated Assault | 7459 | 8760 | 8551 | 8551 | 8034 | 7.7% |
| All Other Offenses | 31912 | 32530 | 32207 | 32207 | 29984 | -6.0% |
| Peeping Tom | 29 | 37 | 33 | 33 | 36 | 24.1% |
| Family Offenses, Nonviolent | 718 | 578 | 517 | 517 | 503 | -29.9% |
| Forcible Rape | 1187 | 1284 | 1268 | 1268 | 1207 | 1.7% |
| Intimidation | 5815 | 5212 | 5540 | 5540 | 5478 | -5.8% |
| Kidnapping | 431 | 468 | 457 | 457 | 391 | -9.3% |
| Forcible Fondling | 1436 | 1615 | 1634 | 1634 | 1478 | 2.9% |
| Sexual Assault with Object | 214 | 222 | 252 | 252 | 206 | -3.7% |
| Statutory Rape | 335 | 312 | 326 | 326 | 284 | -15.2% |
| Incest | 70 | 66 | 70 | 70 | 53 | -24.3% |
| Forcible Sodomy | 377 | 433 | 408 | 408 | 340 | -9.8% |
| Simple Assault | 19594 | 19437 | 20138 | 20138 | 20403 | 4.1% |
| Murder and Non-Negligent Manslaughter | 119 | 184 | 188 | 188 | 174 | 46.2% |
| Arson | 1361 | 1469 | 1280 | 1280 | 1326 | -2.6% |
| Burglary/Breaking and Entering | 14570 | 14169 | 15344 | 15344 | 13970 | -4.1% |
| Counterfeiting/Forgery | 3413 | 2867 | 3062 | 3062 | 2891 | -15.3% |
| Embezzlement | 286 | 269 | 267 | 267 | 226 | -21.0% |
| Extortion/Black mail | 174 | 238 | 274 | 274 | 269 | 54.6% |
| False Pretenses/Swindle/Confidence Game | 6599 | 5766 | 5583 | 5583 | 5767 | -12.6% |
| Identity Theft | 5931 | 6364 | 5670 | 5670 | 5593 | -5.7% |
| Wire fraud | 898 | 895 | 1047 | 1047 | 941 | 4.8% |
| Impersonation | 609 | 540 | 435 | 435 | 422 | -30.7% |
| Credit Card/Auto Teller Machine Fraud | 3533 | 3483 | 3498 | 3498 | 3145 | -11.0% |
| Bad Checks | 83 | 28 | 41 | 41 | 40 | -51.8% |
| Welfare Fraud | 16 | 14 | 20 | 20 | 17 | 6.3% |
| All Other Larceny | 29411 | 26466 | 27880 | 27880 | 25830 | -12.2% |
| Shoplifting | 15831 | 15414 | 19290 | 19290 | 23459 | 48.2% |
| Theft From Motor Vehicles | 26155 | 24381 | 24825 | 24825 | 19100 | -27.0% |
| Pocket-Picking | 321 | 341 | 382 | 382 | 341 | 6.2% |
| Theft From Building | 6040 | 5871 | 6631 | 6631 | 6332 | 4.8% |
| Purse-Snatching | 353 | 430 | 391 | 391 | 430 | 21.8% |
| Theft From Motor Vehicles Parts/ Accessories | 5358 | 9684 | 9439 | 9439 | 4208 | -21.5% |
| Theft From Coin-Operated Machine or Device | 265 | 162 | 164 | 164 | 132 | -50.2% |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 16195 | 19710 | 23156 | 23156 | 17411 | 7.5% |
| Robbery | 2241 | 2604 | 2930 | 2930 | 2643 | 17.9% |
| Stolen Property Offenses | 1144 | 1468 | 1700 | 1700 | 1362 | 19.1% |
| Destruction/Damage/Vandalism of Property | 37900 | 37986 | 38286 | 38286 | 33711 | -11.1% |
| Trespass of Real Property | 15903 | 12419 | 13864 | 13864 | 14217 | -10.6% |
| Animal Cruelty | 415 | 482 | 478 | 478 | 494 | 19.0% |
| Curfew/Loitering/Vagrancy Violations | 203 | 93 | 120 | 120 | 417 | 105.4% |
| Disorderly Conduct | 10989 | 8648 | 8434 | 8434 | 8320 | -24.3% |
| Driving Under the Influence | 12377 | 13513 | 13529 | 13529 | 14289 | 15.4% |
| Drug/Narcotic Violations | 14699 | 7578 | 6035 | 6035 | 6729 | -54.2% |
| Drug Equipment Violations | 1358 | 903 | 653 | 653 | 828 | -39.0% |
| Liquor Law Violations | 2231 | 1197 | 1361 | 1361 | 1275 | -42.9% |
| Pornography/Obscene Material | 612 | 607 | 596 | 596 | 620 | 1.3% |
| Runaway | 1742 | 1044 | 1098 | 1098 | 1073 | -38.4% |
| Weapon Law Violations | 6374 | 6186 | 5993 | 5993 | 5921 | -7.1% |
| Hacking/Computer Invasion | 195 | 216 | 158 | 158 | 103 | -47.2% |
| Assist or Promote Prostitution | 43 | 63 | 47 | 47 | 56 | 30.2% |
| Prostitution | 67 | 142 | 101 | 101 | 75 | 11.9% |
| Negligent Manslaughter | 51 | 44 | 44 | 44 | 42 | -17.6% |
| Human Trafficking – Commercial Sex Acts | 32 | 31 | 29 | 29 | 37 | 15.6% |
| Human Trafficking – Involuntary Servitude | 4 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 50.0% |
| Bribery | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 5 | -54.5% |
| Gambling Equipment Violation | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Justifiable Homicide | 8 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 7 | -12.5% |
| Purchasing Prostitution | 15 | 115 | 60 | 60 | 156 | 940.0% |
| Sports Tampering | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | -100.0% |
| OUCR Only Crime | 624 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -100.0% |
| Drunkenness | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -100.0% |
| Operating/Promoting/Assisting Gambling | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -100.0% |
| Total | 316341 | 305069 | 315819 | 315819 | 292807 |
GOING FORWARD
The crime rate in Oregon has come down since 2011 but there is still much to be done to rectify the situation created by soft on crime policies and liberal drug policies. Oregon is ranked 46th out fifty states and the District of Columbia in public safety. It ranks 4th highest in public safety spending per capita but 49th in police per capita.